FOOTBALL: Simeon Pincus’ Week 6 Mid-State 37 football picks
Simeon PincusNow we’re rolling. A 16-2 week picking games last weekend has me feeling confident, especially since nobody saw Rahway over Somerville coming – well, maybe the Indians did. The other game I got wrong? Ask the fine people of North Hunterdon High School whether they’d like me to pick against them again.
I’m 70-20 for the season. Here are my picks for Week 6:
Friday, Oct. 13
Immaculata (3-2) at Ridge (2-3), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Immaculata 28-8; LAST YEAR: Ridge 43-0; CURRENT STREAK: Ridge 1
I’m headed to Basking Ridge on Friday night for this one, looking forward to seeing each of these Top 10 teams in person for the first time this year (follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook @SimeonPincusCN for live updates).
Ridge needs this one if it hopes to keep its playoff streak intact, and while the Red Devils have ridden standout back R.J. Milligan and its offense, averaging 32 points per game, the defense has been suspect, surrendering 30 points per contest, with opponents twice eclipsing the 42-point mark against them. The good news for Ridge is that this looks like a good matchup, as Immaculata has had trouble scoring at times, including in a 7-0 edging of Warren Hills last weekend.
The Spartans, despite a winning record, have averaged just nine points per game outside of a 24-0 blanking of winless Plainfield on opening day and a 56-point outburst against defensively challenged Scotch Plains-Fanwood three weeks ago. Immaculata should get some points up on the board Friday night, but it isn’t likely to be enough.
PINCUS’ PICK: Ridge 38-20
READ: North Hunterdon’s Griffin Honthy named Courier News/Mid-State 37 Football Player of the Week
READ: Week 5 Mid-State 37 football roundup
READ: Football rankings! The latest Courier News/Mid-State 37 Top 10
STANDINGS: Mid-State 37 football standings
Linden (3-1) at Bridgewater-Raritan (3-2), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Linden 2-1; LAST YEAR: Bridgewater-Raritan 21-0; CURRENT STREAK: BR 1
Forget the long winning streaks, divisional titles and sectional finals trips Bridgewater-Raritan has been trying to live up to of late, and let’s keep the big picture in perspective: This is a huge game for the Panthers. Bridgewater-Raritan did not lose a game during the regular season the past two years, cruising into the North 2 Group V playoffs as a top seed and rolling to the final. This year, with two losses already – albeit losses to a pair of undefeated clubs in Phillipsburg and North Hunterdon – the Panthers are really going to have to bear down, and that starts with this game.
Linden has been a force since being edged 12-7 by Westfield on opening day, reeling off three straight victories against quality teams, including beating Ridge and Elizabeth the past two weeks, posting 44 points per game since opening weekend. The Tigers provide BR with another serious threat to its seed in an insanely tough section that also included Westfield, Piscataway, Ridge, Union, Elizabeth and other challenging opponents, and a loss here could plummet the Panthers in to power-points standings.
Look for a bounce-back week for Bridgewater-Raritan after last weekend’s stunning loss at North Hunterdon, but the Panthers are going to have to earn it. Josh Rosenfeld has the coverage Friday night. He’s on Twitter @JoshPRosenfeld.
PINCUS’ PICK: Bridgewater-Raritan 28-20
Bernards (1-5) at Bound Brook (4-1), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Bound Brook 36-26-8; LAST YEAR: Bernards 48-7; CURRENT STREAK: Bernards 5
There is a man who lives in Bound Brook, a longtime colleague and friend, a man who once toiled on the track for the Crusaders and still very much bleeds red and white. He is a man who covered football for the Courier News for the better part of three decades, a man who has written a lot of dumb things in this space over the years to go with the many pearls of wisdom he’s shared with us. I am not like that man, who has been chirping at me all season about this game. Me, I don’t let my personal football demons impact my picks, but he feels there’s no way Bound Brook wins this game.
An opinion fueled by the waiting-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop Bound Brook mentality those of us that are fans of the NFL Jets can sure relate to, and the small-school inferiority complex and “school of choice” guilt he’s had to endure. Sure, Bernards is 1-5 and the Crusaders are 4-1. “But look at the difference in the strength of schedule! The Ghosts can’t compete with that!” the man might say, a man who will be covering this one on Friday night (follow him on Twitter @TheFrez56 for live updates).
But I have faith in Bound Brook. Faith that they can roll with a team, although rebuilding, one coming off a trip to the Central Group II final. I can find it within me to have faith in Bound Brook. The faith one of its native sons can’t seem to muster. But that doesn’t mean I’m not going to pick the Crusaders to win. I mean, have you SEEN the schedule Bernards has played?!?!
PINCUS’ PICK: Bernards 31-19
Governor Livingston (1-3) at Somerville (4-1), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Governor Livingston 2-1; LAST YEAR: Somerville 49-7; CURRENT STREAK: Somerville 1
I was surprised, but not shocked, to see Somerville fall to Rahway last Friday night, snapping a 13-game regular-season winning streak. Fact is, the Pioneers have been playing with fire all season, just begging to get picked off. Somerville had been tied at halftime in every game this year -- except Week 1 against Cranford, when it led 8-3 at intermission – and managed to come alive on offense in the second half and pull away. Last week, the Pioneers trailed 14-0 at half, and with quarterback Ryan Kovacs and two-way threat Duke McDuffie each limited to just a handful of plays Friday night due to injury, Somerville was unable to find that next gear against a rejuvenated Rahway club.
One thing is certain; Somerville, which would clinch the Mid-State 37 Conference Mountain Division title with a win here, is not happy, and rebuilding Governor Livingston finds itself in the wrong place at the wrong time, about to discover how focused an angry football team can be.
PINCUS’ PICK: Somerville 54-17
Hillsborough (3-2) at Hunterdon Central (2-3), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Hunterdon Central 24-13; LAST YEAR: Hunterdon Central 17-16; CURRENT STREAK: Hunterdon Central 1
Hillsborough suffered through several disappointing losses last season, and its one-point setback to Central probably tops the list. But this is a more potent Hillsborough attack, while the Red Devils, although having showed plenty of positive this year, is, somewhat, in a reset mode, after heavy graduation losses and a new coaching regime. I fully expect this to be a very good game, as Central continues to improve and Hillsborough settles into a groove, one the Raiders hope carries them deep into the playoffs. Boro has suffered tough losses to powerhouses Bridgewater-Raritan and Phillipsburg, so this is pretty much a must-win. And I believe the Raiders will do just that.
PINCUS’ PICK: Hillsborough 30-16
Manville (4-1) at Brearley (3-2), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Brearley 33-7-1; LAST YEAR: Manville 28-21; CURRENT STREAK: Manville 1
Manville has not played a lot of high-leverage, late-season games in its program’s history, but the Mustangs haven’t boasted a team as capable as this one very often, either. Two important factors to consider for Manville, which is coming off its first-ever victory over Belvidere in 12 tries; there’s the Mid-State 37 Conference Union Division race, in which the Mustangs enter the week tied for second with Brearley, a game behind Bound Brook, as well as playoff seeding on the line here.
The winner of this game moves a half-game ahead of Bound Brook for the division lead, as the Crusaders play a nondivisional game against Bernards. If it’s Manville, the Mustangs would then need to beat Roselle Park in Week 9 and, since a Week 1 Bound Brook victory over Manville gives the Crusaders the head-to-head edge in the event of a tie in the division, Bound Brook would have had to lose to Brearley in Week 8 or Dayton in Week 9 to give the Mustangs the title. Since Brearley has yet to face Bound Brook, the Bears would control their own destiny in the division with a win here.
As for the Central Group I playoffs, the Mustangs are already in great shape to qualify for just the third time in program history and for the second year in a row, and enter the week second in power points behind Bound Brook. Manville has never won a playoff game, so a high seed would certainly increase those chances, and a win here would go a long way in that regard.
Manville has been solid on both sides of the ball all year, even coming within a late touchdown of beating Bound Brook in Week 1, while Brearley is on a three-game winning streak. The Bears’ 40-21 win over then-undefeated Roselle Park two weeks ago was very impressive, but I still give Manville the nod.
PINCUS’ PICK: Manville 33-26
Montgomery (1-4) at Warren Hills (2-3), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Montgomery 7-2; LAST YEAR: Montgomery 24-8; CURRENT STREAK: Montgomery 7
Montgomery is 12 games under .500 in its 15-year history, so there aren’t many teams the Cougars hold a decisive advantage over in their all-time series like they do against Warren Hills. And while the Blue Streaks have struggled the past couple of years and, like Montgomery, are below .500 so far this season, Warren Hills has been decidedly better than it has in recent campaigns. Considering Montgomery has underachieved, and there’s a very real threat to the Cougars seven-game head-to-head winning streak. I don’t have a good feeling about this for Montgomery, despite it coming off its first victory of the season. The Cougars certainly can win this game, but I see Warren Hills celebrating a home win.
PINCUS’ PICK: Warren Hills 20-13
South Hunterdon (1-5) at Belvidere (3-2), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Belvidere 34-24; LAST YEAR: Belvidere 41-6; CURRENT STREAK: Belvidere 3
Bravo, South Hunterdon. Congrats on your first victory of the season, 42-21 over Pennsylvania’s George School, snapping a 16-game losing streak that goes back to 2015. Big game for the Eagles offense, as Mekhi Beckett led the way with 150 rushing yards and three touchdowns, with Eric Myers adding a 22-yard touchdown pass and an 81-yard punt return for a touchdown to go with 6-for-6 on extra-point attempts. Quarterback Justin Torres chipped in a scoring pass and a 61-yard end zone run for South Hunterdon. But beware, young Eagles, for the road to Belvidere on a Friday night is dark and full of terrors.
PINCUS’ PICK: Belvidere 30-14
Summit (3-2) at Cranford (3-2), 7 p.m.
LAST YEAR: Cranford 37-7.
Both of these programs have taken a step back after dominant success in recent seasons, but both remain plenty capable of giving anyone a run, which makes for an intriguing matchup. Summit’s 14-13 edging of Immaculata in Week 2 remains the Hilltoppers’ lone quality win, while Cranford’s only impressive win came in Week 3, 24-14 over Rahway, before the Cougars were nearly upset at winless Scotch Plains-Fanwood last Saturday, escaping with a 43-42 overtime triumph. This should be a very good game, and since I have seen both teams in person, I should have a pretty good handle on what to expect. But I really don’t. When it doubt, home team rules.
PINCUS’ PICK: Cranford 23-21
Union (2-2) at Franklin (1-3), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Union 5-2; LAST YEAR: Union 27-10; CURRENT STREAK: Union 4
Coming off a bye week that followed an inspired outing at Hunterdon Central two weeks ago, one that saw Franklin edged in overtime, and the Warriors should be rejuvenated and ready to compete. And while I can certainly see Franklin giving Union a game, ultimately, the Farmers are likely too tall of an order.
PINCUS’ PICK: Union 27-14
Voorhees (4-1) at Delaware Valley (3-2), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Voorhees 18-15; LAST YEAR: Del Val 21-7; CURRENT STREAK: Del Val 8
What a difference a year makes. A season ago, this game was a yawner, as Voorhees was struggling through a 3-7 campaign and Del Val was playing mediocre ball, ending in a missed playoff berth. This is going to look very different than the Terriers 21-7 victory a year ago. Don’t get me wrong, I am high on Del Val, expecting good things. But the turnaround Voorhees has enjoyed, propelling itself from non-entity to powerhouse in just one offseason has been spectacular, and after losing this game last year, I expect nothing less than a Vikings romp in this one.
PINCUS’ PICK: Voorhees 33-16
Saturday, Oct. 14
North Hunterdon (5-0) at Scotch Plains-Fanwood (0-5), 1 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: North Hunterdon 4-0; LAST YEAR: North Hunterdon 31-24; CURRENT STREAK: North 4
It’s been a quite a season and quite a week for North Hunterdon. The Lions won the game of the year in the conference so far this season, not only topping then-No. 2 Bridgewater-Raritan, 21-14, by rallying for three unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but getting the game winner on an eye-popping trick play. The win not only meant a boatload of power points and an intact undefeated season for the Raritan Division champs, but also a climb up the Top 10 rankings.
Junior receiver Griffin Honthy and coach Jared Mazzetta each also pocketed prestigious individual awards. I have had some very good weeks picking games this year, going 17-1 in Week 1 and 16-2 last weekend, and each time those slates have been blemished by my underestimating North Hunterdon. Sure, the Lions still have some incredibly tough games left on their schedule, with tilts against Hillsborough, Phillipsburg and North Hunterdon coming after this weekend’s trip to Scotch Plains. And I might very well fall into the trap of picking against North again at some point, only to have me proven wrong on the field – I covered both the Week 1 game at Summit and last week’s affair, with the guys being sure to flaunt their victory to my face right after the final gun, and rightfully so.
But there will be no flaunting this weekend. Scotch Plains-Fanwood might very well give the Lions a run – the Raiders nearly toppled Cranford last weekend, falling 43-42 in overtime – but there’s no way I see North Hunterdon not winning this game. But hey, I’ve been wrong about North before.
PINCUS’ PICK: North Hunterdon 41-20
Elizabeth (3-2) vs. Westfield (5-0) at Rutgers University, 1 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Elizabeth 29-16-3; LAST YEAR: Westfield 13-7; CURRENT STREAK: Westfield 2
You know what’s a great number? The number 31. My birthday is on the 31st of May and my all-time favorite athlete, Mike Piazza, wore No. 31. Westfield is hoping that number has some significance for it, as well, as a win against Elizabeth on Saturday would give the Blue Devils their state-best 31st consecutive victory. But don’t expect it to be easy.
With Immaculata, Scotch Plains-Fanwood and the annual Thanksgiving game against Plainfield the only contests remaining on Westfield’s schedule after this week, the Minutemen are easily going to be the Blue Devils’ biggest obstacle to another undefeated campaign – at least until the playoffs. And although Elizabeth has losses to Hillsborough and Linden, and barely snuck past Hunterdon Central last weekend, winning 30-22, this team is very capable of toppling Westfield. Fact is, as good as the Blue Devils defense has been, averaging 6.8 points against per game, how much longer can Westfield rest all its hopes on the unit and expect to keep notching wins?
Westfield’s offense has struggled against good teams after being decimated by graduation. The Blue Devils managed just 12 points against Linden and struggled again last week in a 7-6 win over Union, but also managed just 23 points against Ridge and Franklin, respectively, fewer than most of us would have expected against those defenses. One of these days someone is going to score a fluke touchdown or two against this vaunted defense, enough to hold off the struggling attack and grab the victory, and that could very well happen here. Westfield wraps up its fourth straight Watchung Division title with a win, and though I can certainly see an upset brewing, I’m reluctantly going to give the Blue Devils the nod. Josh Rosenfeld (on Twitter @JoshPRosenfeld) has the coverage Saturday from Kean University.
PINCUS’ PICK: Westfield 17-13
Watchung Hills (0-5) at Plainfield (0-5), 1 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Watchung Hills 6-1; LAST YEAR: Watchung Hills 31-7; CURRENT STREAK: Watchung Hills 4
There are no draft picks in high school football. While certain professional ball clubs and their fans might believe it sometimes is in a team’s best interest to win as few games as possible as to inflate next year’s draft position, there is no bright side to a winless varsity season. That makes this the biggest game of the year for these teams along their journey to resurrect these programs.
I will be making the short trip to Hub Stine Field for this one (follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus for live updates), as these clubs look to post their first wins of the season. And considering each plays a very tough schedule the rest of the way, this might be their best chance to secure a victory -- at least until consolation weekend. Both teams have played competitively at times against high-level opponents, so this really is a coin flip tilt. Either way, I’m expecting a good one.
PINCUS’ PICK: Watchung Hills 30-26
Dayton (1-4) at Hillside (3-2), 1 p.m.
LAST YEAR: Hillside 47-0
I think I might be visiting Conant St. Park next week when Delaware Valley comes to town. In the meantime, this should go similarly to last year’s meeting between these teams in Springfield.
PINCUS’ PICK: Hillside 40-6
Simeon Pincus can be reached at SPincus@GannettNJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN