FOOTBALL

Simeon Pincus’ Week 3 football picks: Key battles of undefeateds on tap

Simeon Pincus
Courier News and Home News Tribune

Prognosticating high school football has a way of humbling a man. Here I was, just a week ago, reveling in my 17-1 opening-week slate. I was talking smack, making obscure references, and generally enjoying my success like an NFL rookie who just got his first signing bonus.

Then came week 2 and it all came crashing down to the tune of a 12-7 slate.

Granted, I went out on a limb on a few picks, trying to score the upset, while several other games were just coin flips that didn’t go my way. And yes, I finished well over .500, but that’s simply not good enough.

So as I lick my wounds and question my existence, trying to figure out where it all went wrong, I give you my picks for week 3:

FRIDAY, SEPT. 22

Voorhees (2-0) at Somerville (2-0), 7:30 p.m. – Who’d have thought this game would have this much juice? Voorhees was almost an afterthought in the Mid-State 37 Mountain Division coming into this season, having gone 3-7 last year and never showing much life. But with a large group of returners and two impressive wins to start the season – including a 35-0 throttling of Cranford last week, behind three passing and two rushing touchdowns from quarterback George Eberle – and the Vikings are suddenly a team to be reckoned with. Somerville has proven last year’s resurgent 10-1 campaign was no fluke, as the Pioneers got it done against Cranford in week 1 and had no trouble with North Plainfield last week. The winner of this one will battle Rahway for the division title, and while I definitely give Voorhees a legitimate chance and would not at all be surprised to see a Vikings victory, I’m going to go with the Pioneers. Follow Harry Frezza @TheFrez56 for live updates.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Somerville 22-12-1; CURRENT STREAK: Somerville 1

PINCUS’ PICK: Somerville 31-21

READ: Week 2 football roundup: All your Mid-State 37 results and game-story links

READ: Football rankings -- the latest CN-area Mid-State 37 Top 10

READ: Franklin’s Tykee Reinberry is the Courier News/Mid-State 37 Week 2 Football Player of the Week

READ: New Jersey might become first state to use instant replay in high school football games

Phillipsburg (2-0) at Bridgewater-Raritan (2-0), 7 p.m. – It sounds cliché, but every game in the Mid-State 37 is tough, and that’s especially true of the upper divisions, like the Delaware, and these teams’ early-season slates have been a perfect example. Bridgewater-Raritan has had to navigate Hunterdon Central in week 1, and came within a point of seeing its now-24-game regular-season winning streak snapped last Friday night against Hillsborough. Phillipsburg, meanwhile, got off easy against Franklin in week 1, as the Warriors seem to have found a rhythm since – and then barely held off Central 14-12 last weekend. Now these teams clash in a game that should decide the division. The Panthers have continued to get big plays on defense, while an offense that was full of questions entering the year after heavy graduation losses has shown it has answers. That’s been especially true in the running game where David Usewick has led the way, though first-year quarterback Greg Verano has done a great job piloting the unit, making plays on the run and hitting big completions when it matters most. Pburg will be the best defensive team the Panthers have seen so far, and if the BR offense can get it done Friday night, they sky appears to be the limit for a team looking to get over the hump after dropping two straight sectional championship games. Danny LoGiudice has live coverage of this one -- follow him @danny_logiudice for updates – and don’t forget to bring along school supplies to donate to the victims of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The BR TV club will have donation boxes set up at each entrance at Basilone Field on Friday night.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Phillipsburg 16-6; CURRENT STREAK: Bridgewater-Raritan 2

PINCUS’ PICK: Bridgewater-Raritan 17-10

Brearley (0-2) at South Hunterdon (0-3), 7 p.m. -- Brearley has been knocking on the door of a victory since it started in week 0, losing 17-12 to Holmdel and then fell 18-15 to Belvidere last weekend. Friday night the Bears migrate to West Amwell and I expect them to kick that door in.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 3-3; CURRENT STREAK: Brearley 1.

PINCUS’ PICK: Brearley 33-7

Linden (1-1) at Ridge (1-1), 7 p.m. -- Ridge has left me scratching my head, and I’m sure I’m not alone. The Red Devils posted a solid 34-14 triumph over Montgomery in week 1, signaling they had enough back and enough incoming to offset their graduation losses. And for the first half last Friday night against Westfield, that appeared to hold true. But a 23-7 loss was the last thing I expected for the team I figured would give the two-time reigning North 2 Group V champion Blue Devils their biggest challenge this regular season. Granted, Ridge lost quarterback Brandon Radice to cramping early in the third quarter of what was a 7-7 game and didn’t get him back, and committed some ill-timed penalties, but I still find it troubling the Red Devils defense seemed to fall apart late against a club that graduated its entire offense. Perhaps the Montgomery victory wasn’t as impressive as I thought, seeing how the Cougars then got blasted by Franklin, Lessons learned for Ridge, I guess, and we’ll see how well they’re applied to a Linden team that gave Westfield a 12-7 scare in week 1.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Ridge 6-2; CURRENT STREAK: Ridge 2.

PINCUS’ PICK: Ridge 21-14

Montgomery (0-2) at Hunterdon Central (0-2), 7 p.m. -- A big exhale for Hunterdon Central after having to face Bridgewater-Raritan and Phillipsburg the first two weeks. The Red Devils played super competitively in each of those contests, and with Montgomery coming off an ugly 42-12 loss at Franklin last weekend, this one figures to go a little smoother for Central.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hunterdon Central 3-0; CURRENT STREAK: Hunterdon Central 3.

PINCUS’ PICK: Hunterdon Central 30-8

Rahway (2-0) at Cranford (1-1), 7 p.m. – Rahway is still a couple of weeks away from getting four-start recruit Antonio Alfano eligible under state transfer rules, according to the NJSIAA, but that shouldn’t stop the Indians from continuing to put notches in the win column. Cranford was not good last Friday night, falling 35-0 to Voorhees, and didn’t look much better in a 36-16 week 1 loss at Somerville, so I can’t imagine keeping Rahway at bay is in the cards for a team two years removed from an undefeated season, especially if the Cougars are going to be without quarterback Connor Katz, who left injured early in the Voorhees game and didn’t return.

PINCUS’ PICK: Rahway 38-14

Roselle (2-0) at A.L. Johnson (2-0), 7 p.m. – The Valley Division’s only undefeated teams get together for a Friday evening meeting in Clark with the winner, obviously, taking firm control of the conference race. ALJ has had no trouble so far, cruising past a pair of struggling programs in New Providence (41-3) and Bernards (38-7), while Roselle has been a little more battle tested, following up a 34-17 victory over Bernards in week 1 by scoring a nice win over Delaware Valley, 28-21 last Friday night. Hard to tell where the Crusaders are, exactly, having not been put to the test just yet, and while I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Rams come out on top, I’ll go with the home team.

PINCUS’ PICK: A.L. Johnson 31-27

Summit (1-1) at Warren Hills (1-1), 7 p.m. -- Here’s a quick lesson on the transitive properties of picking football games: Warren Hills lost to North Hunterdon by 18 points, 31-13 last weekend. Summit fell to North Hunterdon by just four points, 21-17 in Week 1. And since 18-4 = 14, my pick is obvious.

PINCUS’ PICK: Summit 28-14

Roselle Park (3-0) at Belvidere (2-0), 7 p.m. – Just to illustrate that it’s not always about the math, here’s another of those transitive-property games. But for this one we add an X-factor. Belvidere snuck past Dayton 17-14 in week 1, before Roselle Park crushed the Bulldogs 41-6 this past weekend. So while normal transitive prognosticating might dictate I pick Roselle Park by 32 points, here’s the X-factor: The Panthers have never beaten the County Seaters, going 0-6 since they started facing each other in 2009. Roselle Park’s gotten close, losing by four points in 2016 and 2014, but so far no dice. If this game were in Roselle Park I’d consider picking the Panthers, but the long trip to Belvidere is dark and full of terrors (and, apparently, Game of Thrones references).

PINCUS’ PICK: Belvidere 22-19

Union (2-0) at Elizabeth (1-1), 7 p.m. – Far too much math in the last two picks, so I’ll keep this simple: Union is good. Elizabeth is not as good.

PINCUS’ PICK: Union 28-19

Watchung Hills (0-2) at North Hunterdon (2-0), 7 p.m. -- This game was one of the more competitive contests Watchung Hills played last year, as it fell to North 34-26 en route to a 2-8 campaign. But while the Warriors have shown little sign of improvement, the Lions have surged, topping Summit in week 1 before blasting Warren Hills last Friday night. I can see Watchung Hills staying competitive in this one, but ultimately, I expect our friends from Clinton to improve to 3-0.

ALL-TIME SERIES: North Hunterdon 20-14; CURRENT STREAK: North 6

PINCUS’ PICK: North Hunterdon 24-14

Westfield (2-0) at Franklin (1-1), 7 p.m. -- In what I thought would be a very vanilla matchup, this game has actually taken on some interesting subplots. Let me be clear off the bat, I would be shocked, SHOCKED, if Westfield didn’t win this game and roll its winning streak to 27 games. Yes, Franklin’s 42-12 lambasting of Montgomery last Friday night was crazy impressive, totally unexpected, and a phenomenal sign of great things to come for our Warriors. But Westfield is a totally different story than Montgomery and I think Franklin knows that, and I think if CN Player of the Week Tykey Reinberry and friends can keep this one competitive, they can consider it a victory of sorts. Westfield, meanwhile, is fresh off its 23-7 topping of Ridge, which showed me that while the Blue Devils defense, as expected, is going to be a force once more, despite heavy graduation losses, the death of its offense has been greatly exaggerated. Yes, scoring only one touchdown against Linden in week 1 gave me pause, but a 23 spot on Ridge has alleviated my concerns and shown me the two-time defending North 2 Group V champs are, indeed, a complete team that should have a clear run at another undefeated regular season.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Westfield 2-1; CURRENT STREAK: Westfield 2.

PINCUS’ PICK: Westfield 27-7

SATURDAY, SEPT. 23

Bernards (0-3) at Hillside (1-1), 1 p.m. -- This might be the first time in history a sportswriter has declared the fourth game of a season for an 0-3 team a ‘Must win,’ but that’s exactly what this is for Bernards. The Mountaineers knew they were in for a rebuilding campaign after going to the sectional final last year and then losing the overwhelming majority of its club to graduation. But Bernards’ focus for 2017 is not returning to a state championship game, it’s simply finishing over .500 and keeping its state-best string of seven consecutive winning seasons for a public school in tack. If the Mountaineers don’t find a way to beat Hillside this weekend – and it’s a longshot – they can forget about keeping the streak alive, based on the rest of their schedule. It’s a tall task, but one never knows.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tie 2-2; CURRENT STREAK: Bernards 1.

PINCUS’ PICK: Hillside 34-20

Dayton (0-2) at Manville (1-1), 1 p.m. -- This should be a no-brainer Manville pick, but there’s a little more here than meets the eye here. Yes, the Mustangs looked great pushing Bound Brook to the brink in a 7-6 week 1 loss. And yes, Dayton was a mess last year, finishing 3-7, including two forfeits, and are coming off a 41-6 loss to Roselle Park. But two things concern me from Manville’s perspective: First, Dayton nearly beat Belvidere in Week 1, losing by just three points, but that might just be an indictment of the County Seaters. More concerning, however, is that fact Pingry gave Manville a run last weekend, with the Mustangs escaping with a 21-14 win. That could just mean Pingry is very much improved and refreshed after leaving the Mid-State 37 Conference for an independent schedule stocked with tiny private schools. Or that could mean Manville got a little complacent after turning in such a great performance against its rivals in week 1. I guess we’ll find out Saturday.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Dayton 14-7; CURRENT STREAK: Manville 1.

PINCUS’ PICK: Manville 27-12

Delaware Valley (1-1) at New Providence (0-2), 1 p.m. -- Delaware Valley could have really used a win last week against Roselle, falling 28-21. The setback puts a serious crimp into the Terriers hopes of making a run at the Valley Division title, and while that goal is still within reach, they’re pretty much going to need to run the table and then get some help. The good news is they shouldn’t have much trouble getting back in the win column this week.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Delaware Valley 1-0; CURRENT STREAK: Del Val 1

PINCUS’ PICK: Delaware Valley 37-7

Immaculata (1-1) at Scotch Plains-Fanwood (0-2), 1 p.m. -- Immaculata had no trouble opening against Plainfield, scoring a 24-0 victory, but faced a challenge last weekend and came up short, falling to Summit 14-13 after missing a first-half extra point and then both teams playing shutout football over the final two periods. The Spartans will be tested again next week against North Hunterdon, but for now shouldn’t have much of an issue against Scotch Plains-Fanwood. The Raiders certainly played more competitively than I expected last weekend in a 34-20 loss to Union, so while a win here might be a tall order, I’ll be very interested to see if SPF can keep this one competitive, too, as it looks to get the program turned around following nine straight non-winning seasons. Danny LoGiudice will have coverage and live updates from this one @danny_logiudice.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Immaculata 4-0; CURRENT STREAK: Immaculata 4.

PINCUS’ PICK: Immaculata 31-14

North Plainfield (0-2) at Governor Livingston (0-2), 1 p.m. – I’ll be spending my Saturday in Berkeley Heights (follow me @SimeonPincus for live updates), and I’m looking forward to seeing exactly where these teams are after each suffered heavy graduation losses. Both squads have struggled so far, each losing by an average of 20-plus points over their first two games, but now the true test comes against one another. The Highlanders counted on a solid running game last year to make the playoffs, while the Canucks now-graduated quarterback Nick Cherasaro consistently lit up opponents while trying to overcome North Plainfield’s struggling defense. Both teams have struggled on both sides of the ball so far, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes. It’s a coinflip game, and although Governor Livingston has won three straight in this series and gone 21-15 against the Canucks all-time, I’m going to go against my normal strategy and take the road team.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Governor Livingston 21-15; CURRENT STREAK: Gov. Livingston 3.

PINCUS’ PICK: North Plainfield 28-21

Plainfield (0-2) at Hillsborough (1-1), 1 p.m. – My regular readers know I’ve been on the Hillsborough bandwagon since the preseason, and the Raiders haven’t disappointed, with their loss coming in a one-point affair against Bridgewater-Raritan, a team that hasn’t lost a regular-season game in three years. And I still very much believe in Boro and expect its coaching staff put some emphasis on controlling its enthusiasm in big games, as several ill-timed unsportsmanlike-conduct and personal-foul flags doomed the Raiders’ upset hopes last weekend. There will be a much bigger margin for error this weekend, despite Plainfield having shown improvement after last year’s disappointing 1-9 campaign. The Cardinals were very much in last week’s game against Union, a contest that was 14-13 late in the third quarter before the Farmers surged to a 28-13 triumph, but Hillsborough is a step above and will provide an even steeper mountain to climb for Plainfield.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hillsborough 3-0; CURRENT STREAK: Hillsborough 3

PINCUS’ PICK: Hillsborough 38-10

Simeon Pincus can be reached at SPincus@GannettNJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN

Tyler Boatwright and Hillsborough look to get back in the win column Saturday at Plainfield