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FOOTBALL PICKS: Simeon Pincus’ Week 7 Mid-State 37 predictions

Simeon Pincus
Courier News and Home News Tribune

I’m coming off a solid but not great 11-4 week picking games, as Franklin’s victory over Union and Immaculata’s topping of Ridge took the conference by surprise last Friday night. Some real tough games to predict and some important meetings with playoff implications are on tap for this weekend.

I’m 81-24 for the season. Here are my picks for Week 7:

Friday, Oct. 20

Hillsborough (4-2) at North Hunterdon (6-0), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hillsborough 24-8; LAST YEAR: Hillsborough 48-17; CURRENT STREAK: Hillsborough 3

I have been going back and forth on this game for about two weeks now, convinced North Hunterdon will win one minute, before being certain Hillsborough would triumph the next minute. And I still haven’t come to a clear and confident conclusion as I type the words “Clear and confident conclusion.”

Ok. Ok. Here it is. Let’s see if I can work this out as we go:

Hillsborough has one of the conference’s most potent offenses, trailing just undefeated A.L. Johnson, undefeated Phillipsburg and one-loss Somerville for most point per game in the Mid-State 37 (Boro has just under 32 PPG). At the same time, the Raiders defense has been somewhat inconsistent, turning in a few gems, like shutouts of Elizabeth and Watchung Hills and giving up just six points last weekend to Hunterdon Central, but also posting a couple of stinkers, like surrendering 31 points to Bridgewater-Raritan and 35 to Phillipsburg.

North Hunterdon has been fantastic across the board, tallying 29 points per game and surrendering just 13. Yes, the Lions have played a decidedly weaker schedule than Hillsborough has, but they’ve already beaten Bridgewater-Raritan, a team that’s topped Hillsborough, and shown not even a little vulnerability against everyone else.

So here’s how I see it. There’s no doubt the Matt Busher-led Lions offense can do its thing against the Raiders. And the North defense will certainly face its biggest challenge of the season against running back Tyler Boatwright, quarterback Matt Moore, receiver Jackson Parham, all-around impact player Charles Amankwaa and the Boro attack.

But the bottom line is North Hunterdon has proven me wrong at every turn, anytime I’ve doubted the Lions.

Albert Einstein once said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. And that dude was mad smart, so I should probably listen. I am sure of one thing, though; I’ll be in Clinton on Friday night for this one (follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus for live updates), and any handshakes I get from North players postgame won’t be accompanied by that ‘I told you so’ grin this time.

PINCUS’ PICK: North Hunterdon 31-27

READ: Week 6 Mid-State 37 football roundup and game-story links

READ: Football rankings! The latest Courier News/Mid-State 37 Top 10

STANDINGS: Mid-State 37 football standings

Westfield (6-0) at Immaculata (4-2), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Westfield 4-1; LAST YEAR: Westfield 35-13; CURRENT STREAK: Westfield 4

I had a lot of trouble deciding which game to cover Friday night. I ultimately chose to go to the North/Hillsborough game, but the final decision really came at the 11th hour, because I also really wanted to see this game.

Immaculata pulled off a shocker last Friday night, toppling Ridge on its home field, 21-14. And I know this is a game the Spartans have had circled, and let’s just say they’re not unhappy that Westfield took care of business against Elizabeth last weekend, keeping that 31-game winning streak intact and giving Immaculata the chance to be the team to end it.

After some careful thought, in-depth analysis and deep introspection, I don’t believe that will happen, hence my planned trip to North Hunterdon on Friday night.

Sure, Immaculata’s topping of Ridge was highly impressive, especially the Spartans’ ability to seriously limit running back RJ Milligan and the Red Devils’ highly potent offensive attack. And yes, Westfield hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut, averaging just 19 points per game, a number inflated by a 35-point outburst against struggling Watchung Hills.

But the Blue Devils have also been a team that has found a way to get it done, no matter the opponent, the pace of the game, or the importance of the contest (hence six playoff wins and two state championships during the streak). Westfield has constantly found enough offense and maintained the defensive dominance that’s become their trademark over the past three years.

Immaculata has boasted an excellent defense of its own, surrendering just 13 points per game, but the offense has struggled with some inconsistency, and against a juggernaut like Westfield that hasn’t allowed more than seven points in any game this year, I find it highly unlikely Immaculata is going to be able to score enough to claim the win.

Harry Frezza has coverage of this one. Follow him on Twitter @TheFrez56 for live updates.

PINCUS’ PICK: Westfield 17-6

Bernards (1-6) at Voorhees (5-1), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 1-1; LAST YEAR: Bernards 35-0; CURRENT STREAK: Bernards 1

This is a great illustration of how starkly different life has been for some of our teams since last season.

A year ago, Bernards was trucking along, en route to its seventh straight winning season and a trip to the Central Group II final. Voorhees, meanwhile, was struggling through a campaign that would finish 3-7, headed into a meeting with the Mountaineers that ended with a 35-0 loss (I was there. It wasn’t pretty).

But where are they now? Voorhees is one of the great breakout stories of 2017, cruising toward a high seed in the Central Group III playoffs (the Vikings are currently the No. 3 seed), and already a win away from matching the highest win total the program has managed since 2003. Bernards, meanwhile, has suffered massive graduation losses and is pretty much starting from scratch, and it has not gone well, with the latest setback coming 37-14 to Bound Brook last week, the Mountaineers’ first loss to the Crusaders in six meetings.

I wish I had a silver lining or some hope to offer Bernards. But the fact is Voorhees will win this game Friday night. The only question I see if whether or not they’ll run the clock.

PINCUS’ PICK: Voorhees 37-7

Bound Brook (5-1) at Brearley (3-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Brearley 28-9-1; LAST YEAR: Bound Brook 34-7; CURRENT STREAK: Bound Brook 1

I had some doubt last week as I looked ahead to this weekend’s slate, whether or not I’d be able to confidently pick Bound Brook to win this game. Heck, the Crusaders only have nine victories in the 38 games all-time in this series and this looks like a solid Brearley club, one that’s already beaten then-undefeated Roselle Park two weeks ago. But then Bound Brook went out and blasted Bernards last weekend, winning 37-14, and all my doubts have melted away.

PINCUS’ PICK: Bound Brook 30-13

Bridgewater-Raritan (4-2) at Franklin (2-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 13-13; LAST YEAR: Bridgewater-Raritan 27-0; CURRENT STREAK: BR 5

I’ve written a ton about Bridgewater-Raritan the past two seasons. I mean, why wouldn’t I, considering all the Panthers’ success and how many big games they play week in and week out? But I think it’s time to give Franklin the love it deserves in this, my grandest of forums.

A quick historical refresher on our Warriors. First, let’s not forget, that Franklin is one of the area’s all-time winningest programs, at least in the playoff era. It’s gone to nine sectional finals and won six titles, one of only five locals with that many championships. But recent seasons have beat down this once proud club, to the tune of four straight campaigns of two wins or fewer, including last year’s 1-9 mark.

But it looks like the times are finally a’changing.

The Warriors have been super impressive, as first-year head coach John Paczcowski and standouts Tony Scott and Tykey Reinberry have led the way as Franklin has begun playing near its full potential. And not only in victory. This team crushed Montgomery 42-12 in week 2, before pulling off a massive stunner last weekend, edging Union 14-13. The Warriors have also impressed in their losses, falling to Hunterdon Central in overtime in Week 4, and even staying competitive for most of their contests against undefeated Westfield and Phillipsburg (both were one-possession games at halftime).

Don’t get all upset and start calling me out on Twitter just yet, Bridgewater-Raritan fans. I’m not picking Franklin to win this contest. All I’m saying is the Panthers better bring their A-games or I’m going to end up being as wrong about this game as I have been about some others involving BR this year.

The incomparable Josh Rosenfeld has live coverage of this one. Follow him on Twitter @JoshPRosenfeld.

PINCUS’ PICK: Bridgewater-Raritan 23-13

READ: Bridgewater-Raritan’s Justin Bryant named Courier News/Mid-State 37 Football Player of the Week

Cranford (3-3) at Governor Livingston (1-4), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Cranford 13-7; LAST YEAR: Cranford 49-7; CURRENT STREAK: Cranford 5

Boy, was I wrong about Cranford last week, picking the Cougars to beat Summit, only for the Hilltoppers to join the long list of teams to make me look like a fool by firing out a dominant 31-13 topping of Cranford. I shan’t be wrong about this week’s game.

PINCUS’ PICK: Cranford 30-14

Phillipsburg (5-0) at Montgomery (1-5), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Phillipsburg 3-0; LAST YEAR: Phillipsburg 14-6; CURRENT STREAK: P’burg 3

I’m not a Yankees fan, but if I were, I’d be frustrated I’d be missing Game 6 Friday night covering football.

PINCUS’ PICK: Phillipsburg 35-7

Plainfield (0-6) at Elizabeth (3-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Elizabeth 50-37-2; LAST YEAR: Elizabeth 42-14; CURRENT STREAK: Elizabeth 4

This is the 90th all-time meeting between these clubs, and although Plainfield certainly showed things are moving in the right direction when I saw the Cardinals last Saturday, I can’t say they’ve moved far enough to have a legit chance of upending the Minutemen. Maybe next year.

PINCUS’ PICK: Elizabeth 27-12

Ridge (2-4) at Union (2-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Ridge 3-2; LAST YEAR: Ridge 34-21 (regular season); Union 41-34 (2 OTs in playoffs); CURRENT STREAK: Union 1

There is no doubt Ridge’s 2-4 record has been one of the biggest disappointments in the conference this year. I’m sure most of you will agree we expected better for our Red Devils, coming off last year’s 8-2 campaign that featured a fourth playoff berth in five seasons. But perhaps Ridge’s struggles started the last time they faced Union.

After going 8-1 during the regular season a year ago, losing only to a team in Westfield that hasn’t lost a game since 2014, the third-seeded Red Devils were shocked in the first round of the North 2 Group V playoffs by Union, 41-34 in double overtime, a team Ridge had beaten during the regular season. And yes, the Red Devils suffered some key graduation losses since, and play a brutally tough schedule, but two games under .500 wasn’t something I expected. And last week’s shocking loss to Immaculata just took things to a new level.

And then there’s Union. Perhaps I’ve been overestimating the Farmers. A 2-0 start was nice, but, considering it came against Watchung Hills and Plainfield – two teams with a combined 1-11 record whose only win came in overtime against each other – and perhaps the start wasn’t that impressive after all. So when Union then dropped consecutive games to Elizabeth and Westfield, that didn’t really raise any red flags, but last week’s 14-13 setback to Franklin certainly did.

So here Ridge’s chance to get things moving back in the right direction, with Elizabeth on tap for next week. Fact is, the Red Devils are perilously close to missing the playoffs. They enter the week as the No. 8 or No. 9 seed in North 2 Group IV – one site has 0-6 Columbia listed with more power points than Ridge, but I fail to see how that’s mathematically possible – so there’s nothing but must-wins for Ridge the rest of the way.

PINCUS’ PICK: Ridge 34-26

Scotch Plains-Fanwood (0-6) at Rahway (3-2), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Rahway 27-18; LAST YEAR: Rahway 54-35; CURRENT STREAK: Rahway 8

Despite its winless record, Scotch Plains-Fanwood pushed a good Cranford team to the brink two  Saturdays ago, falling in overtime in a wild 43-42 affair, and has been competitive in several other contests. The Raiders’ offense continues to prove it can roll with anyone, as quarterback Cooper Heisey is enjoying another standout season, and possesses several weapons at his disposal. The SPF defense, on the other hand, has been, um, not very good, and that’s really what stands between the Raiders and more success, just like last year.

It’s certainly possible Scotch Plains-Fanwood finds a way to reach the win column here, but it’s going to take the kind of defensive effort the Raiders have yet to show. And with Rahway coming off a bye, the Indians figure to be quite prepared Friday night.

PINCUS’ PICK: Rahway 44-38

Somerville (5-1) at A.L. Johnson (5-0), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: A.L. Johnson 7-1; LAST YEAR: Somerville 50-6; CURRENT STREAK: Somerville 1

This is a crazy tough week to pick games. Sure, there are some no-brainers and fairly certains, but there are also some true coin flips, and this is one I’ve been having an inner debate on who to pick all week, but I’m pretty secure in the decision I’ve come to.

Yes, Somerville is not the dominant force it was last season. Sure, the Pioneers have delivered their share of blowouts, but life hasn’t been nearly as easy as last year when they went 9-0 in the regular season and outscored their opponents by an average of 50-15. And as Rahway proved, Somerville is vulnerable when it doesn’t bring its A-game.

Then there’s A.L. Johnson. Undefeated, sure, but against Group I and small Group II schools with a combined record of 12-18. Somerville will be far and away the toughest team the Crusaders have faced this season, and after a decisive Pioneers victory last year, there’s probably a certain amount of in-their-heads cache Somerville will carry into Clark for this one.

Somerville’s 50-6 topping of A.L. Johnson last season was the Pioneers’ first in eight all-time meetings, and I believe the Crusaders 7-1 all-time head-to-head advantage is going to take another hit Friday night.

PINCUS’ PICK: Somerville 38-29

Warren Hills (3-3) at Hunterdon Central (2-4), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hunterdon Central 40-33-2; LAST YEAR: Hunterdon Central 30-0; CURRENT STREAK: Central 2

Someone asked a very good question recently, when they inquired as to why Hunterdon Central plays Warren Hills but doesn’t face North Hunterdon. I wish I had a good answer.

PINCUS’ PICK: Hunterdon Central 31-10

Watchung Hills (1-5) at Linden (3-2), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Linden 4-2; LAST YEAR: Linden 21-14; CURRENT STREAK: Linden 2

The streets of Watchung, Warren and the surrounding area were alive in song last Saturday, as the Warriors returned from Plainfield with their first victory of the season, 9-6 in overtime, thanks to some clutch defense and the right foot of Brian Puccio. OK, maybe "alive in song" is pushing it. I’m sure the fine people of the Watchung Hills school district had better things to do with their Saturday night. Or maybe not. In any case, at least I finally got to see a smile from my niece while on duty in her role as a Warriors cheerleader. Been a rough season, not only for the football team, but also the cheerleading squad. Glad it was the on-field drama, for a change, that held their attention Saturday.

As for the game, well, Linden has taken a giant leap forward since last season’s meeting with Watchung Hills, a game that ended 21-14. The Warriors’ advances have been a bit more subtle.

PINCUS’ PICK: Linden 34-10

Saturday, Oct. 21

Delaware Valley (3-3) at Hillside (4-2), 1 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Delaware Valley 4-1; LAST YEAR: Del Val 31-6 CURRENT STREAK: Del Val 4

Ah, Conant Street Park. Site of many childhood memories. You see, when I was a younger man, my grandparents lived directly across the street from Hillside’s home field, so the town my mother grew up in and the school in which she served as a cheerleader has a special place in my heart. I even lived in that house for several months in my early 20s after my grandparents moved, just to “keep an eye” on the place as it was up for sale. Let’s just say I made the most of it (insert winking emoji).

Saturday, for the first time in about two decades, I will cover a game on Conant St. – follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus for live updates -- as I relive some of my youth and wonder what possessed the people who ultimately purchased my grandmother’s house to pave part of the front lawn to expand the driveway and put a friggin’ well on the rest of it (no idea if it said well actually produces water).

But I digress.

Delaware Valley rolls into Hillside needing this one badly, as it enters the week 11th in power points in Central Group II. Considering last year’s lopsided result – a 31-6 Del Val triumph – and the fact the Terriers are improved, and you’d think, no problem. Easy Del Val win. But let’s not underestimate the Comets, a team that’s handled their business in some tough games and played pretty competitively when they’ve played up.

I certainly see Del Val winning this one. But it isn’t going to be easy. Just like the time I had to explain to my grandmother how that giant hole got in her living room couch.

PINCUS’ PICK: Delaware Valley 24-20

North Plainfield (0-5) at Summit (4-2), 1 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Summit 6-4; LAST YEAR: Summit 46-42; CURRENT STREAK: Summit 6

After some early inconsistency, Summit has found its groove, winning three straight after a 1-2 start, including an impressive lambasting of Cranford last weekend. I’d like to say North Plainfield has a puncher’s chance in this one, especially after putting up 42 points against the Hilltoppers last year, but that was a very different Canucks offense. Things don’t figure to be as competitive this time around.

PINCUS’ PICK: Summit 37-13

Roselle (4-2) at Dayton (1-5), 1 p.m.

LAST YEAR: Roselle by forfeit

Hey, remember last year when Dayton lost 47-0 to Hillside in Week 6 and then decided it didn’t have enough players to compete, so it forfeited its next two games against Roselle and Bound Brook? And then remember how the Bulldogs suddenly decided they could play again, just in time to blast winless South Hunterdon and then North Arlington in the consolation game? Good times.

PINCUS’ PICK: Roselle 55-6

Roselle Park (4-2) at New Providence (0-5), 1 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: New Providence 29-9; LAST YEAR: New Providence 11-0; CURRENT STREAK: New Providence 3

New Providence’s 29-9 advantage over Roselle Park is one of the area’s more lopsided all-time series among those with long histories. Heck, even in their worst season in decades, the Pioneers lone victory last year came against the Panthers 11-0. So New Providence has to be feeling pretty good going into this game as it looks for its first triumph of this year.

But Roselle Park has proven it has put last year’s 3-7 campaign in the rearview mirror, getting off to a 4-0 start this year before running into Brearley and Bound Brook. New Providence has a way to go before it can put its recent struggles behind it, and even playing this and its next two games against the Mid-State 37’s Union Division and its all-Group I membership, the struggle is likely to continue.

PINCUS’ PICK: Roselle Park 27-14

Simeon Pincus can be reached at SPincus@GannettNJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN