Somerset County Softball Tournament seeding projection

The 2017 Somerset County Tournament is scheduled to be seeded Tuesday night during a meeting of coaches at Bridgewater-Raritan High School.

The committee will have to take several factors into consideration, including record, head-to-head results, strength of schedule and common opponents, and it can be a tricky and subjective procedure.

After a huge sampling of games headed into last year’s meeting after the tournament was pushed back two weeks, the installation of the Tournament of Champions has moved the state tournament’s start up a week, pushing the SCT back to its original slot. Still, while the weather forced scores of cancelations during the first week of this season, we’ve had some nice weather the past two weeks, giving teams a chance to get their games in and giving us a pretty good idea of who deserves to be seeded where.

Here is my annual breakdown of how I would seed the tournament based on the prescribed criteria. This projection does not include the results of some games slated for Tuesday that could impact the seeding, but I’ll do my best to include those scenarios, as well.

Follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.Facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN, and/or check back here Tuesday night following the meeting for the actually seeds and matchups. I will post them as soon as they’ve become official.

NOTE: Gill St. Bernard’s has opted not to enter the tournament this year, leaving it as a 15-team bracket, giving the No. 9 seed a bye into the second round.

Records through Monday.

(Overall record/county record in parenthesis).
County opponents in bold

1. MONTGOMERY (6-0/4-0)
WINS:Franklin, Immaculate Heart, WatchungHills, Gill St. Bernard’s, Livingston, Ridge
LOSSES:  None
ANALYSIS: This is a no-brainer projection, as the undefeated Cougars should get their first No. 1 seed since 2010, a year after they won their last county title. Montgomery does have a big Skyland Conference Raritan Division showdown on tap for Tuesday afternoon, but that outcome shouldn’t impact the Cougars getting the top seed here, regardless. Montgomery hasn’t been seeded higher than No. 4 since 2011.

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2. WATCHUNG HILLS (6-1/1-1)
WINS: Monroe, North Hunterdon, Lenape Valley, Roselle Park, Somerville, Nutley
LOSSES:Montgomery
ANALYSIS: The two-time defending champs have won four of the past five county titles, with the only year the Warriors missed in that span coming in 2014 when they fell in the semifinals. That was also the only season they’ve been seeded No. 1 since 2001. The top seed, in fact, has not won this tournament since Hillsborough did it in 2011. Watchung Hills plays host to Immaculata on Tuesday, but shouldn’t have much trouble in that one.

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3. RIDGE (4-3/3-1)
WINS:Bridgewater-Raritan, Franklin, Hillsborough, Morristown
LOSSES:  North Hunterdon, Millburn, Montgomery
ANALYSIS: There has been no better or more surprising positive story so far this season than the rise of the Red Devils, a team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2002. Ridge has been seeded higher than No. 9 just once since the turn of the century, earning a No. 6 seed in 2012, a tournament in which the Red Devils were promptly toppled by No. 11 Franklin in their first game. Head-to-head victories over Bridgewater-Raritan and Hillsborough have keynoted Ridge’s rise and assures the Red Devils are seeded ahead of the two perennial county powers. Ridge is at Warren Hills on Tuesday, but the outcome of that game shouldn’t impact these proceedings.

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4. BRIDGEWATER-RARITAN (7-1/2-1)
WINS:Immaculata, Old Bridge, Delaware Valley, Warren Hills, Morristown, Bernards, Roselle Park
LOSSES:Ridge
ANALYSIS: Last year’s runners up are capped at No. 4 after losing a head-to-head meeting with Ridge and would fall to No. 5 if the Panthers lose to Hillsborough on Tuesday. BR is looking for its first title since 2008 after getting to the final twice since that season.

5. HILLSBOROUGH (0-4/0-1)
WINS: None
LOSSES:  Hunterdon Central, Ridge, Delaware Valley, Cedar Grove
ANALYSIS: The Raiders would help their cause in a major way if they can beat Bridgewater-Raritan on Tuesday, not only earning them what should be a No. 4 seed, but avoiding possibly plummeting in the seeding. I’m placing Boro here based on strength of schedule, but I’ve been covering this county for 19 years and some coaches tend to look at a winless record and immediately drop teams well below where they belong. Hillsborough’s reputation as a powerhouse and the fact it has been to 13 of the past 15 finals could help the Raiders avoid that even if they do lose to the Panthers on Tuesday. Still, though Hillsborough’s run of not being seeded lower than No. 2 since 2007 is a near-certainty to end this year, the Raiders also haven’t been seeded lower than No. 4 since they were No. 11 in 2000, and that’s a streak Hillsborough will need a victory Tuesday to even have a chance to continue.

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6. SOMERVILLE (3-3/1-1)
WINS:Bernards, North Brunswick, Belvidere
LOSSES: Hopewell Valley, Delaware Valley, Watchung Hills
ANALYSIS: Things would be clearer here had Somerville and Immaculata not had a scheduled meeting rained out opening day, but the Pioneers’ record should land the Ville at No. 6. The Pioneers do face Pingry on Tuesday, but a loss would be so shocking that I’m not going to even project where Somerville’s seed would fall if it were to lose that game.

7. IMMACULATA (1-5/0-1)
WINS: Phillipsburg
LOSSES:Bridgewater-Raritan, Hunterdon Central, Voorhees, North Hunterdon, South Brunswick
ANALYSIS: If you’re a skeptic when it comes to strength-of-schedule arguments, look no further than Immaculata’s early-season road. All five of the teams the Spartans have lost to are ranked in their respective areas, and although Immaculata has been beaten handily in most of those games – they have three losses by 10-run mercy rule – its scheduling edge should earn it a No. 7 seed and bye into the second round, despite having only one victory. The Spartans are at Watchung Hills on Tuesday, but that’s probably not going to end well for them.

8. BERNARDS (2-6/1-2)
WINS:Pingry, Middlesex
LOSSES: West Essex, Somerville, Verona, Belvidere, Chatham, Bridgewater-Raritan
ANALYSIS: The Mountaineers could solidify their hold on the No. 8 seed with a win over Voorhees on Tuesday, perhaps even ticking up a spot, but that’s looking like a longshot. Still, a head-to-head victory over Pingry and strength-of-schedule edges over the Mountain Division teams that should populate the next several spots in these projections, should land Bernards here.

9. NORTH PLAINFIELD (2-0/1-0)
WINS:Bound Brook, Academy for Urban Leadership
LOSSES: None
ANALYSIS: The Canucks haven’t been seeded higher than No. 13 since they were No. 8 in 2003, but it’s looking like that streak will end this year. North Plainfield enters Tuesday’s action having played the fewest games of any team in the Skyland Conference, and with Rutgers Prep on tap, I’d be surprised if the Canucks weren’t still undefeated by the time the seeding meeting is called to order. Still, a low sample of games and a weak schedule likely caps North Plainfield here. Or at least it should.

10. MOUNT ST. MARY (2-1/1-0)
WINS:Manville, South Hunterdon
LOSSES: Metuchen
ANALYSIS: Tough to seed the Mount Lions properly, considering they’ll head into Tuesday’s meeting with Bound Brook with just three games played, but as it stands now, a winning record is a winning record, so that should land Mount St. Mary here. A loss to the Crusaders on Tuesday would certainly change things, at minimum flipping the Mount Lions with Bound Brook.

11. BOUND BROOK (1-2/1-2)
WINS:Manville
LOSSES:North Plainfield, Gill St. Bernard’s
ANALYSIS: The Crusaders pretty much land here by default, as the teams below them – other than Manville, which Bound Brook beat head-to-head -- are all expected to head into the meeting winless. The Crusaders visit Mount St. Mary on Tuesday, and a victory there would elevate them another spot in the bracket.

12. MANVILLE (2-4/1-2)
WINS:Franklin, Plainfield
LOSSES:Mount St. Mary
ANALYSIS: The Mustangs haven’t been seeded as high as No. 12 since 2006, but with a pair of victories should find themselves here.. Manville plays host to Gill St. Bernard’s on Tuesday, but head-to-head losses to Bound Brook and Mount St. Mary puts the Mustangs’ ceiling here.

13. PINGRY (0-5/0-1)
WINS: None
LOSSES:Bernards, Peddie, South Hunterdon, Voorhees, AL Johnson
ANALYSIS: Winless, and likely to stay that way having to face Somerville on Tuesday, Pingry’s had a rough go of it since the graduation of Katie Marino, who is now at the University of Notre Dame. Still, Pingry’s strength of schedule easily eclipses Rutgers Prep, and, unlike Franklin, the Big Blue haven’t suffered any “bad” losses, so Pingry should get the nod as the No. 13 seed.

14. FRANKLIN (0-5/0-3)
WINS: None
LOSSES:Montgomery, Florence, Manville, Ridge, Hunterdon Central
ANALYSIS: Yes, the Warriors’ strength of schedule is light years ahead of the other teams that should populate this portion of the seeding ranks, but Franklin has managed to score just one run all year, losing all five of its games via 10-run mercy rule, including a 20-1 loss to Manville. Hard to sugarcoat that. The Warriors are at Phillipsburg on Tuesday, which is likely to end the same way the rest of their games have gone so far this year.

15. RUTGERS PREP (0-4/0-1)
WINS: None
LOSSES: South Hunterdon, Doane Academy, Gill St. Bernard’s, Hun
ANALYSIS: And now for some math: No wins + light schedule = No. 15 seed for the Argonauts.

Staff writer Simeon Pincus can be reached atCourierSoftball@aol.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and atwww.Facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN. For more softball coverage, check out the Inner Circle softball blog at http://MyCentralJersey.com/blog/TheInnerCircle