FOOTBALL PICKS: Simeon Pincus' Mid-State 37 playoff semifinals predictions
Simeon PincusI went 11-4 picking playoff games and 14-5 in consolation-game predictions last weekend for a 25-9 week. Only gets tougher going forward for the 14 remaining Mid-State 37 playoff teams.
I’m 150-41 for the season. Here are my picks for Week 11:
FRIDAY, NOV. 17
North 2 Group IV
No. 6 seed Sayreville (6-4) at No. 2 North Hunterdon (9-1), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: NA
I’m sure there are people out there who would love to see my head on a spike, but I must say at least one member of the North Hunterdon student section is the first person to ever want my mug on a stick.
The North Jungle is one of the most loyal, passionate and fired up groups of students there are, and it’s been treated to a phenomenal season, with big win after big win in one big game after another. So, naturally, I’ve seen quite a few Lions games this season, and I’ve had a great time interacting with the Jungle before and after games.
I did not cover North’s playoff opener last Friday night, as the Lions rallied from a halftime deficit to score a 26-9 victory, but I was alerted Saturday that my face was still in attendance, as one of the North Hunterdon faithful, apparently, printed out a blown-up version of my mugshot and attached it to a stick.
I am very flattered and somewhat disturbed. I won’t be at this game, either, but I’m hoping to catch up with the Jungle in two weeks in East Rutherford.
But first North Hunterdon must contend with GMC power Sayreville, one that should prove to be a serious threat to the Lions’ hopes of returning to a sectional final for the first time since 1978. The GMC has several top-level true powerhouse clubs, and the Bombers are one of them, led by first-year starting quarterback Mark Whitford and junior running back Connor Holmes on offense, and Temple-bound senior Elijah Clark, who teams with Jacari Carter to give Sayreville a pair of lock down corners.
And it’s there in the secondary that this game could be decided.
North’s strength has been its ability to find a way nearly every time out, whether by dominating a lesser team or matching the stronger clubs blow for blow, coming up with heroics late – usually via the passing game – to claim victory. So there are two issues at hand for the Lions in this one: First, can the bend-but-don’t break defense do enough to limit Sayreville’s attack, and can North’s offense, specifically its passing game, do enough against the Bombers secondary to find a way to win?
North quarterback Matt Busher has plenty of receiving weapons, including Jared McMahon, Luke Ingenito and Griffin Honthy, who has been one of the breakout players of the season, one that has come up huge in clutch spots this year. Plus, there’s Busher’s own ability to make plays outside the pocket and get to the second level of opposing defenses. So the unit is certainly capable. The question is whether the result will be the same as when the Lions toppled favored powers like Bridgewater-Raritan and Hillsborough during the regular season, or like when North couldn’t find enough to upset Phillipsburg.
This is another one of those games where I’m not sure which direction to go. On one hand, most every time I have doubted North Hunterdon, its proven me wrong, finishing a way to get it done each time out, with the exception of that Week 8 loss at undefeated Phillipsburg. On the other hand, Sayreville is fully legit and should prove to be a challenge more like the Stateliners than the Panthers and Raiders.
I’m not going to be at Singley Field for this one, but Harry Frezza will be (follow him @TheFrez56 on Twitter for live updates). So if North does manage to prove me wrong once again, feel free to extend your I-told-you-so handshakes to him on my behalf – and then call me out on Twitter.
PINCUS’ PICK: Sayreville 21-17
No. 4 Irvington (8-2) at No. 1 Phillipsburg (9-0), 7 p.m.
Irvington High School’s football field remains the only place that’s ever rejected my media credential and forced me to pay to get into a high school football game (circa 2000 – I promise, I’m over it). But this game will be played at Phillipsburg’s Maloney Stadium, which boasts, perhaps, the best varsity football atmosphere in the state, one that not only features an incredibly comfortable press box, but one that is so media friendly that it even puts out a dinner spread for those working the game!
I assure you, my affinity for P’burg’s setup and the $2.00 I never did recoup paying for that Union at Irvington game 17 years ago has in no way influenced my pick.
PINCUS’ PICK: Phillipsburg 31-7
North 2 Group III
No. 3 Voorhees (8-2) at No. 2 Parsippany Hills (9-1), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Par Hills 1-0 LAST MEETING: Parsippany Hills 35-0 in 2012 playoff quarterfinals
In a season of great stories, Voorhees’ emergence has been one of the headlines and now the Vikings are just one win away from making their first sectional final since 1995.
But Parsippany Hills will be no easy task, as it’ll be Vikings vs. Vikings on Friday night. Par Hills is not only 9-1 – its only loss coming by three points to top-seeded West Essex -- but Parsippany Hills has only been within a touchdown in two of its victories, making this quite the mountain to climb for Voorhees.
It’s always tough to properly handicap these out-of-area playoff matchups, but Parsippany Hills’ resume is pretty impressive. Voorhees certainly has the guns to get it done, led by quarterback George Eberle, who heads a list of players that have burst onto the scene this year after the club went just 3-7 a year ago, but it’s going to take a near-perfect outing to do it.
PINCUS’ PICK: Parsippany Hills 34-24
No. 5 Rahway (6-3) at No. 1 West Essex (9-1), 7 p.m.
I admit it, I got gun shy last weekend about picking Rahway to beat Summit after a 20-point Hilltoppers victory over the Indians during the regular season, so I certainly was not surprised to see Rahway got it done. This game, however, is a different story. Like last week, I can certainly see the Indians continuing to ride the wave and knock off the top seed, but, I have far less temptation to actually pick the upset. So if Rahway does get it done, I will deserve all the Twitter abuse I will get from the Indians faithful.
PINCUS’ PICK: West Essex 31-20
North 2 Group I
No. 6 Roselle Park (6-3) at No. 2 Shabazz (9-0), 7 p.m.
LAST MEETING: 2013 semifinals.
These teams met in these semifinals in 2013, a 35-22 Shabazz victory. It’s likely going to be considerably more decisive this time around.
PINCUS’ PICK: Shabazz 34-7
No. 4 Belvidere (7-3) at No. 1 Weequahic (8-1), 7 p.m.
My grandmother went to Weequahic HS. In fact, whenever I see the word ‘Weequahic,’ in my mind, I can still hear my grandmother pronouncing it. I don’t know if she’s ever been to Belvidere, and since she left us three years ago, I can’t ask her. She was 92, still going to the gym every day well into her late 80s and never missing a Yankees game on TV. As for her eldest grandson, the only time I ever go to the gym is to cover basketball, plus I am a long-suffering Mets fan. So I don’t expect to live to 92.
PINCUS’ PICK: Weequahic 30-12
Central Group III
No. 3 Monmouth (7-3) at No. 2 Somerville (9-1), 7 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: NA
Somerville has hit its stride after a mid-season stumble, as the offense has found a groove and even the defense has turned in a few standout efforts. Monmouth has sort of limped down the stretch and been pretty inconsistent all year, with three of the Falcons’ seven victories coming by one point and several others coming in low-scoring, close games that probably could have gone either way. That is a recipe for disaster against a team as potent as the Pioneers and I expect that to be reflected on the scoreboard Friday night.
Two years removed from a 25-game losing streak, Somerville is a step away from its first sectional final since 2000 and I believe that step will be taken without a lot of resistance at Brooks Field on Friday night.
Follow Josh Rosenfeld on Twitter at @JoshPRosenfeld for live updates.
PINCUS’ PICK: Somerville 41-21
Central Group II
No. 7 Hillside (7-3) at No. 3 AL Johnson (8-1), 7 p.m.
LAST MEETING: AL Johnson 22-13 in Week 5
I’m pretty proud of the fact I not only correctly predicted seventh-seeded Hillside’s upset of then-undefeated South River last week, the No. 2 seed, but I correctly projected the game wouldn’t even be close – it ended 28-7.
This one will be.
These teams already met once this season, with ALJ claiming victory, but this is a different Comets club, one that has found a nice stride, especially on offense, using a standout group of skill-position weapons to help lead the club into and through its first playoff berth since 2005.
I expect this to be a tight, well-played game, but based on momentum and a gut feeling, I see Hillside pulling off another upset.
PINCUS’ PICK: Hillside 21-20
Central Group I
No. 7 Point Pleasant Beach (6-4) at No. 3 Bound Brook (8-2), 7 p.m
ALL-TIME SERIES: NA
It’s Frauenheim vs. Frauenheim, as two of legendary Immaculata football coach Pierce Frauenheim’s four varsity football-playing grandsons match up in this one. Bound Brook two-way lineman Kyle Frauenheim has been a big part of the Crusaders success, while his cousin, Luke Frauenheim, is the starting quarterback for Point Beach, fresh off a big-time effort last weekend as the Gulls rallied from a 14-0 deficit to upset second-seeded Manville 22-14. But that’s just a side story compared to what’s on the line here.
Bound Brook has been to exactly one sectional final in program history and it came in 1978 when the Crusaders fell to Highland Park in the championship game. Now, with a home game against a team I think Bound Brook should be able to handle, family reunions will be the furthest thing from its mind.
Fact is, after seeing what happened to Manville last weekend, and considering what’s on the line, the Crusaders will be supremely focused Friday night. The Crusaders’ offense has more weapons than Manville’s and the defense, overall, has proven itself, really, making this Bound Brook’s game to lose. I certainly wouldn’t put another upset past Point Beach, but I’m giving the Crusaders the nod here.
I’ll be at Lamont Field for this one Friday night, follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus for live updates and coverage.
PINCUS’ PICK: Bound Brook 27-21
READ: Legendary Immaculata coach Pierce Frauenheim’s has four grandsons playing varsity football
SATURDAY, NOV. 18
North 2 Group V
No. 3 Bridgewater-Raritan (8-2) at No. 2 Piscataway (7-2), 1 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Piscataway 1-0. LAST MEETING: 2012 semifinals
The mere presence of Piscataway in this section is an absolute game changer, one Bridgewater-Raritan is about to experience firsthand.
The Panthers have been to two consecutive sectional finals, taking undefeated clubs into MetLife Stadium the past two season before bowing out to Westfield in low-scoring defense struggles. But BR did not have to contend with the GMC powerhouse – neither to Westfield or its 34-game winning streak, for the matter – instead, needing to beat an Essex-County pushover in the first round, before meeting a Mid-State 37 clubs in the semifinals that the Panthers had already beaten during the regular season.
Granted, Bridgewater-Raritan is battle tested, having faced the links of Phillipsburg, North Hunterdon and Hillsborough during the regular season. But after seeing what another GMC power, South Brunswick, did to Hillsborough last weekend in a 42-7 win, we are well aware of what Middlesex County’s upper-tier tems are capable of.
The Panthers’ task is going to be arduous on both sides of the ball. First, the BR defense is going to have to limit a Piscataway attack led by a back in Juwon Jackson who has tallied over 1,600 yards and scored 21 touchdowns, heading a unit that is 21-for-27 in the redzone and is averaging just under 250 rushing yards per game. Then, quarterback Greg Verano and sophomore back Anthony Goffe are going to have to find a way to generate points against a Chiefs defense that has allowed just 12.1 points per game, a unit led by lineman Brijon Artis and stud linebackers Jevon Buckmire, Nick Recine and Michael Petite.
These teams last met in the 2012 sectional semifinals, a 49-0 Chiefs victory, and although I’m picking Piscataway here, you can certainly expect it’ll be a heck of a lot closer.
I’ll be there for this one Saturday, follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus for live updates and coverage.
PINCUS’ PICK: Piscataway 30-24
No. 5 Elizabeth (5-5) at No. 1 Westfield (9-0), 1 p.m.
ALL-TIME SERIES: Westfield 30-16-3; LAST MEETING: Westfield 13-6 in Week 6
So we’ve reached 34 straight victories for Westfield after last Saturday’s topping of Ridge in their playoff opener, and after the Blue Devils’ flexed their muscles to beat the Red Devils for the second time this year, they’ll get Elizabeth this weekend, another club they’ve topped earlier this season.
Earlier this year I was worried week to week about the Blue Devils, who were not exactly lighting up the scoreboard, rallying, instead, on its elite defense to hold teams to just a touchdown a game, allowing its serviceable, yet unspectacular offense to find enough points to win. And the Week 6 meeting with Elizabeth was a good example in a 13-6 Westfield triumph.
But the Blue Devils offense has seen a noticeable uptick in production of late, as sophomore quarterback Hank Shapiro has become more and more comfortable at the helm and the two-headed running-back attack of Juandre House and Tim Allegrio have found a nice rhythm to go along with Jake Vall-Llobera’s short-yardage prowess out of the wildcat.
All that is good news for the Blue Devils against an inconsistent Elizabeth club, although one coming off an inspired victory over East Orange. I could see this being close, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a Minutemen victory, but the smart money’s on seeing a 35th straight on Saturday afternoon.
Follow Josh Rosenfeld on Twitter at @JoshPRosenfeld for live updates.
PINCUS’ PICK: Westfield 23-12
Non-Public Group II
No. 5 Immaculata (6-4) at No. 1 St. Joseph-Hammonton (10-0)
ALL-TIME SERIES: St. Joe 2-0-1; LAST MEETING: St. Joe 48-6 in 2015 semifinals
I’ve asked a few in-the-know people their thoughts on this game, how they thought Immaculata matched up with undefeated St. Joe, and I’ve gotten pretty much the same response; who the heck knows?
The Non-Public sections are always a mystery, with few common-opponent games to gauge how these matchup can go. Plus, the smaller the group, the more the unknown factor comes into play. The Wildcats are undefeated, but have they beaten anyone on the level of the opponents Immaculata has regularly faced in the Mid-State 37?
Fact is, Immaculata plays in a very tough conference, and that experience has served the Spartans well in the past, none more notably than last year, when Immaculata barely snuck into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, only to go on the road in the opening round and topple top-seeded Hudson Catholic.
Can the Spartans knock off another No. 1 seed? Who the heck knows?
PINCUS’ PICK: St. Joseph-Hammonton 24-23
Simeon Pincus can be reached at SPincus@GannettNJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN