FOOTBALL

FOOTBALL PICKS: Simeon Pincus’ Week 9 Mid-State 37 predictions

Simeon Pincus
Courier News and Home News Tribune

I went a satisfactory 15-3 picking games last weekend, whiffing on Watchung Hills' overtime victory over Hunterdon Central for lack of guts (couldn't quite pull the trigger on the upset pick), on Ridge over Elizabeth for lack of faith, and for Bernards over Belvidere for lack of ESP.

Not much this weekend in the way of impact on playoff berths – Hunterdon Central, Franklin, Brearley and Roselle are the only Mid-State 37 Conference teams still on the bubble. But there’s some seeding still to be determined, and these games will go a long way toward setting the final brackets.

I’m 111-29 for the season. Here are my picks for Week 9:

THURSDAY, NOV. 2

Elizabeth (4-4) at Bridgewater-Raritan (6-2), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Bridgewater-Raritan 4-3; LAST YEAR: BR 23-9 (sec. semis); CURRENT STREAK: BR 3

These teams played twice last year, with Bridgewater-Raritan winning both games, 27-21 in the regular season and 23-9 in the sectional semifinals. If they are to meet again in the postseason this year, it would have to be in the final. The Panthers currently are the No. 2 seed, but could fall to third if Piscataway beats Edison (likely) and maxes its residuals (very possible). Elizabeth will be seeded fourth or fifth, pending East Orange’s game against West Orange.

At the end of the day, this game doesn’t have any impact other than record, and though Elizabeth is always capable of a big-time performance, Bridgewater-Raritan is the clear pick here. Follow Harry Frezza @TheFrez56 on Twitter for live updates.

PINCUS’ PICK: Bridgewater-Raritan 27-14

READ: Ridge senior Andrew Lusardi named CN/Mid-State 37 Football Player of the Week

READ: Football rankings! The latest Courier News/Mid-State 37 Top 10

READ: Week 8 Mid-State 37 football roundup and game-story links

FRIDAY, NOV. 3

North Hunterdon (7-1) at Voorhees (7-1), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: North Hunterdon 28-12-1; LAST YEAR: North Hunterdon 42-10; CURRENT STREAK: North 5

The 42nd annual Milk Can Game is always a big deal for these neighborhood rivals, but it’s rare that this game has this much juice outside of the district. Both these teams are enjoying their most successful season in decades, as Voorhees hasn’t entered this game with this good of a record since 1995 (it finished 10-1) and North Hunterdon is enjoying its finest season since 1979.

The last time North Hunterdon had a winning record heading into its meeting with the Vikings was in 2002 when it was 6-4 and the game was still played Thanksgiving eve. Voorhees headed into that game 7-3, the last time both teams had winning records heading into this meeting. North won 24-0.

But the last time these teams were both this good when they met came in 1980, as Voorhees entered 9-0 and won 48-15, before falling to Asbury Park in the sectional final the following week. North was 7-1 that day, same record as it holds now. The Milk Can Game was the Lions’ season finale that year, as they didn’t make the playoffs in what was then a four-team bracket.

There’s your history lesson, folks. As for my pick, well, I actually correctly picked North to lose for the first time this year last week against Phillipsburg, after the Lions had twice proven me wrong with wins over Summit and Bridgewater-Raritan. They won’t get another chance to make me look bad in victory.

This game features a collision of two of the best teams in the conference, both featuring big-time quarterbacks having huge seasons in North’s Matt Busher and Voorhees’ George Eberle, piloting offenses with a ton of weapons. Each also features defenses that have proven able to get things done in big spots. Both have already clinched playoff spots and first-round home games – North is the likely No. 2 in North 2 Group IV and will face Orange or Millburn in the first round, while Voorhees will be the No. 3 in North 2 Group III and will likely face Cranford or Nutley in the playoff opener.

At the end of the day, North has played the far tougher schedule and that big-game experience alone might be enough to make the difference. Either way, I expect a great game and for the Lions to be adding to their 28-12-1 all-time series advantage.

I'll have live updates on Twitter @SimeonPincus

PINCUS’ PICK: North Hunterdon 28-21

Watchung Hills (3-5) at Ridge (4-4), 7 p.m

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 8-8; LAST YEAR: Ridge 44-22; CURRENT STREAK: Ridge 3

There have been a lot of great stories in the conference this season, but over the past few weeks, nothing’s been as inspiring as the emergence of Watchung Hills. The Warriors have done a complete 180 after an 0-5 start, beginning with a dramatic overtime victory over Plainfield three weeks ago, a stunning upset of Linden two weeks ago, and then a clutch overtime victory over Hunterdon Central last Friday night, a must-get if Watchung Hills had any hope of sneaking into the playoffs. The Warriors then got the help they needed and have qualified in North 2 Group V – barring an obscene longshot involving, among other things, JP Stevens beating undefeated St. Joseph and Carteret stunning 6-1 Rumson-Fair Haven. The Warriors have a likely first-round meeting at top-seeded and two-time defending sectional champ Westfield on tap in two weeks. There is a chance Watchung Hills could move up as high as the No. 6 seed and face Piscataway or Bridgewater in the first round, but that’s dependent on how residual points shake out between the Warriors, Ridge and Bayonne.

There’s nothing on the line here in terms of playoff impact, as both teams have already played eight games. Ridge has also clinched a berth and is the likely No. 6 seed, although, like Watchung Hills, could be seeded anywhere from No. 6 through No. 8.

The Red Devils have also finished strong, despite a ton of adversity, namely losing their starting quarterback, Brandon Radice, to a season-ending hip injury two weekend ago. Still, Ridge still found a way to complete an overtime victory over Union in the game Radice went down, and then won an uncharacteristic defensive struggle against Elizabeth last Friday night to sew up a playoff berth.

This is a good matchup for Ridge against its Somerset Hills rivals. All three of Watchung Hills’ victories have come in low-scoring affairs, and Ridge’s offense is probably too potent, even without Radice. Still, the Red Devils did end up in a low-scoring game last weekend, so if the Warriors can craft that kind of game Friday night, perhaps there’s a chance. Winner takes a one-game lead in the all-time series, which is currently tied 8-8.

Harry Frezza will be there. Follow him on Twitter @TheFrez56 for live updates and coverage.

PINCUS’ PICK: Ridge 23-13

Linden (4-3) at Franklin (2-5), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 1-1; LAST YEAR: Linden 38-21; CURRENT STREAK: Linden 1

Franklin is actually still alive for a playoff berth, which would be its first since 2012. If the Warriors win this game, they’ll need losses from three teams to get in; Perth Amboy (likely), Hunterdon Central (possible), and East Brunswick (unlikely). So though the odds are heavily stacked against them, the Warriors still have plenty to play for.

Linden, however, has already clinched its spot in the North 2 Group IV playoffs, though it still has seeding on the line here. The Tigers enter the weekend seeded No. 6, but would move as high as No. 5 with a victory.

Linden has had a strange couple of weeks, losing quarterback Zion Marshall to injury during a loss to Bridgewater-Raritan three weeks ago, before being upset by Watchung Hills in Marshall’s absence two weeks ago. The Tigers were still without their signal-caller Saturday in a decisive win at Plainfield, and his status is still up in the air for this weekend.

Marshall’s presence would make Linden an overwhelming favorite against a Franklin team that has shown a ton of improvement this year, but still has some growing to do. And, sure, the Warriors have turned in standout efforts against plenty of good team this year, even in losses, so I could certainly see a way they could win here even if Marshall played. But the fact is I have a gut feeling that says Marshall won’t suit up, making this one more of a coinflip. I also have a gut feeling Franklin will prevail.

PINCUS’ PICK: Franklin 27-21

Hunterdon Central (3-5) at Union (2-5), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hunterdon Central 3-2-1; LAST YEAR: Central 35-7; CURRENT STREAK: Central 1

Hunterdon Central is dangerously close to missing the playoffs after last Friday night’s disappointing overtime loss at Watchung Hills, but there’s nothing the Red Devils can do but sit back and hope East Brunswick, Perth Amboy and Franklin all lose if they’re going to avoid a consolation game.

Union’s fate in this game actually might have a big impact, however, as both Bridgewater-Raritan, Ridge and Elizabeth could benefit from residual points to improve their seeding in North 2 Group V if the Farmers come out on top.

This should be a tight game and very hard to pick, as I could see it going either way. Union’s home, so I’ll give the Farmers the nod.

PINCUS’ PICK: Union 27-23

Dayton (1-7) at South Hunterdon (1-7), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Dayton 6-4; LAST YEAR: Dayton 28-7; CURRENT STREAK: Dayton 2

A certain conference athletics director recently told me he didn’t think South Hunterdon would win another game in the Mid-State 37 -- as in ever -- keeping in mind that all reports point to the league being merged with the Greater Middlesex Conference in three years. I don’t know if I believe him, but if the Eagles are going to prove him wrong, this would be a good time to do it.

Dayton hasn’t scored more than seven points in any of its past three games, being shut out the past two weekends, while the Bulldogs have allowed close to 40 points per contest. South Hunterdon’s offense should find success, so it’s simply a matter of playing some defense.

Both these teams scored their lone victories in dominant fashion against out-of-conference teams – Dayton beat Highland Park, South Hunterdon topped Pennsylvania’s George School. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see Dayton win, even in a blowout, but I’m going with our friends from West Amwell, mostly on gut.

PINCUS’ PICK: South Hunterdon 28-24

Delaware Valley (4-4) at Cranford (5-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Cranford 7-1; LAST YEAR: Cranford 28-27; CURRENT STREAK: Cranford 6

This game has no impact on any of the playoff or seeding races, as Delaware Valley already is eliminated from making the postseason, while Cranford has clinched a spot in North 2 Group III. The Cougars will be seeded somewhere in the No. 5 to No. 7 range, pending the outcome of Rahway’s game at North Plainfield and a residual-point race with Nutley.

Delaware Valley needs this to avoid being in danger of a losing season for first time in 12 years, as a setback here would put the Terriers at risk in the consolation game of finishing under .500 for the first time since going 2-8 in 2004. Unfortunately for Del Val, I don’t see a victory here, so it’s conso-or-bust in two weeks.

PINCUS’ PICK: Cranford 27-13

Governor Livingston (1-6) at A.L. Johnson (6-1), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: AL Johnson 31-15-1; LAST YEAR: ALJ 35-20; CURRENT STREAK: ALJ 3

A.L. Johnson has clinched a spot in Central Group II and will be seeded No. 3 or No. 4, depending on Manasquan’s game against Red Bank Catholic. It’s been a rough season for Governor Livingston, which is guaranteed its ninth straight non-winning campaign. The Highlanders will play a consolation game in two weeks and will be favored Thanksgiving against New Providence, but I don’t expect things to go very well for GL on Friday night.

PINCUS’ PICK: AL Johnson 34-7

Manville (6-1) at Roselle Park (5-2), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Roselle Park 35-5; LAST YEAR: Roselle Park 32-22; CURRENT STREAK: Roselle Park 5

The last time Manville won as many as seven games in a season, Richard Nixon had been in office less than a year, we had yet to put a man on the moon, and many of this year’s team’s parents had yet to be born. It was the best season in Mustangs history, 1968, a fall in which Manville went a perfect 9-0, back before there were football playoffs in New Jersey. Of course, that was also the year the Mustangs’ chief rival, Bound Brook, went 8-1, with the Crusaders lone loss coming to Manville 21-0. Just thought I’d throw that in there for my favorite Bound Brook resident.

The Mustangs have a lot more riding on this game than history. The NJSIAA’s ruling that the scheduled contest against People’s Prep two weeks ago not be counted as a forfeit victory, as originally thought, has made this game a potential power-point haul for Manville. The Mustangs have already clinched the first playoff home game in program history, but they’re also still in the hunt for a top 2 seed, which would mean a potential Central Group I semifinal would also be contested at Penfile Stadium. A victory here would be a 22-power-point bonanza, giving Manville a minimum No. 2 seed, depending on the fortunes of Burlington City.

Bound Brook is locked at 116 power points, unless Dunellen stuns undefeated South River, which would give the Crusaders one additional point, so if Manville wins, it moves ahead of Bound Brook, adding 22 to the current 97 points, guaranteeing a Top 2 seed. The only question would then be whether the Mustangs or Burlington City get the No. 1

Here are the scenarios:

  • If Manville wins and Burlington City loses, Manville is the No. 1 seed, Bound Brook is No. 2 and Burlington City or Middlesex would be the No. 3.
  • If Manville and Burlington City both win, the Mustangs must root for both Salem and Delran to lose. If one wins, it comes down to tiebreakers between Manville and BC for the top seed. If both win, Manville gets the No. 2. If both Salem and Delran lose, Bound Brook and Burlington City would go to tiebreakers for the No. 2 seed, with Manville the No. 1 seed.
  • If Manville and Burlington City lose, Bound Brook is the No. 1 seed, Burlington City is No. 2 and Manville is seeded No. 3, unless Middlesex wins, then the Blue Jays move into the No. 2 seed pushing everyone else down a spot.

Roselle Park’s North 2 Group I playoff picture is similar to Manville’s. A Panthers victory here boosts them to the No. 4 seed and a first-round home game, while a loss would land Roselle the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

This should be a victory for Manville, which has handled everything the season has thrown at it after a one-point, last-minute loss to Bound Brook on opening night. I’ve covered every playoff game in Mustangs history (there have been two), and there’s a pretty good chance I’ll see No. 3 and, hopefully, more.

PINCUS’ PICK: Manville 20-14

Montgomery (1-7) at Hillsborough (5-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Hillsborough 11-4; LAST YEAR: Hillsborough 20-12; CURRENT STREAK: Hillsborough 1

Montgomery will miss the playoffs for the third straight season, while Hillsborough gets in for the second year in a row and fifth times in the past seven years. This game won’t have any impact on the Raiders’ Central Group V seeding, but they’ll be keeping an eye on the fortunes of Old Bridge and North Brunswick, as Hillsborough hopes to hold on to the No. 5 seed and avoid falling as far as No. 7.

I would like to say I think Montgomery has a shot in this game, but that would be fake news.

PINCUS’ PICK: Hillsborough 41-20

New Providence (0-7) at Belvidere (5-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Tied 4-4; LAST YEAR: Belvidere 24-13; CURRENT STREAK: Belvidere 1

New Providence came within a point of scoring its first victory of the season last weekend, falling to Brearley 29-28, and this is a similar game, one the Pioneers could win. Would be great to see New Providence finally get one, and with this game having zero impact on Belvidere’s playoff standing, perhaps the planets are properly aligned for the Pioneers to get off the schnide.

Belvidere is No. 4 or No. 5 in North 2 Group I, pending Roselle Park’s fortunes against Manville. The County Seaters face Newark Collegiate at home or visit Roselle Park in the first round.

PINCUS’ PICK: Belvidere 19-14

Phillipsburg (7-0) at Immaculata (5-3), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Immaculata 3-0; LAST YEAR: Immaculata 28-10; CURRENT STREAK: Immaculata 3

This game has no impact on Immaculata in terms of playoffs, as the Spartans have already locked up a Non-Public II berth and will be seeded No. 5 or No. 6, depending on whether Gloucester Catholic beats Schalick. Phillipsburg clinches the top seed in North 2 Group IV with a win and would be seeded second behind North Hunterdon if the Stateliners lose. P’burg’s fortunes also have a minor residual-point impact on some of the other races.

As for the game, Immaculata is the only Courier News-area team with a winning record all-time against Phillipsburg (basically, the Skyland Conference and Western Union County). And though don’t see Immaculata winning this game, which would snap a 3-0 all-time slate against P’burg, I do give the Spartans a puncher’s chance. Immaculata’s offense hasn’t exactly been potent, even against some of the more defensively challenged teams it has faced, though its defense has shown it can roll with anyone. If the Spartans can keep this close and low scoring, perhaps they can find a way to steal the game, similar to their win over Ridge. A longshot, but a possibility.

PINCUS’ PICK: Phillipsburg 21-12

Rahway (4-3) at North Plainfield (0-7), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Rahway 12-7-2; LAST YEAR: Rahway 55-12; CURRENT STREAK: Rahway 2

North Plainfield will miss the playoffs for the third straight season, while Rahway has clinched a spot in North 2 Group III, though this game could improve the Indians’ seed. Rahway is currently the No. 7 seed, but could move as high as No. 5 with a victory.

PINCUS’ PICK: Rahway 34-14

Roselle (5-2) at Bound Brook (7-1), 7 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Roselle 17-5-1; LAST YEAR: Roselle 48-12; CURRENT STREAK: Roselle 4

Bound Brook’s attention is best suited elsewhere Friday night, as nothing the Crusaders do in this game is going to have any impact on their playoff standing, which is good, because I don’t actually expect them to do much in this game.

Bound Brook is in, and currently sits atop the Central Group I bracket, but both Burlington City and Manville can catch or pass Bound Brook with victories – BC also needs residual-point help. If Manville tops Roselle Park and Burlington City beats winless Riverside, and then Salem OR Delran win their games (both those games are coin flips), Bound Brook falls to No. 3.  The only way the Crusaders retain the top seed is if both Manville and BC lose. If BC wins and Manville loses, it’s going to come down to residuals and maybe even tiebreakers for the top seed.

In any case, Bound Brook isn’t winning this game, and it probably isn’t going to be close. Let’s just keep everyone healthy, boys.

PINCUS’ PICK: Roselle 37-20

SATURDAY, NOV. 4

Scotch Plains-Fanwood (0-8) at Westfield (7-0), 2 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Westfield 41-13-2; LAST YEAR: Westfield 46-7; CURRENT STREAK: Westfield 4

Two-time defending champ Westfield is already locked in as the top seed in North 2 Group IV, but a win here would be the Blue Devils’ 33rd straight. Scotch Plains-Fanwood has been eliminated from playoff contention. But while this game might not mean much more than bragging rights between these neighboring rivals, there are some interesting undertones.

Let me be clear; I’m not suggesting winless Scotch Plains-Fanwood is going to beat undefeated Westfield. I’d be very surprise. Not shocked, but pretty surprised. But this might actually be the most potent offense the Blue Devils have faced this season. But the Raiders have allowed 52 points per game -- 48, even if you take out last Saturday’s 82-46 loss to Somerville. And if SPF ever figured things out on defense against Westfield, which hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, relying on a defense that’s allowed just 6.6 point per game to go with an offense that’s scored just 19 per contest, well, things might be more interesting.

One very possible thing to look out for however is whether Scotch Plains-Fanwood can become the first team to score more than seven points against the Blue Devils this year.

I’ll be covering this one (follow me on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook @SimeonPincusCN for live updates.

PINCUS’ PICK: Westfield 35-14

Somerville (7-1) at Summit (6-2), 2 p.m.

ALL-TIME SERIES: Summit 6-2; LAST YEAR: Somerville 42-7; CURRENT STREAK: Somerville 2

Somerville has locked up a Top 2 seed in Central Group II, but whether they’re No. 1 or No. 2 will depend on residuals, assuming Rumson-Fair Haven beats Carteret, as expected. Summit is settled in as the No. 4 seed in North 2 Group III.

Assuming both teams play to their potential, this should be a very good game, and Harry Frezza will be there with the live updates and coverage (On Twitter @TheFrez56). There’s always the chance guys might see more rest than they would otherwise because, really, the game means nothing in the grand scheme of things to teams starting playoff runs in two weeks, but all else being equal, I can see this going either way. The Ville won last year’s meeting 42-7. This will be decidedly closer.

PINCUS’ PICK: Somerville 37-30

Brearley (4-4) at Hillside (5-3), 1 p.m.

LAST YEAR: Hillside 34-0

Both these teams will be scoreboard watching, as this game means nothing to any of the playoff races, but both their playoff fortunes will be impacted elsewhere.

Brearley’s only hope of sneaking into the North 2 Group I bracket will come down to the seven power points it could earn, enough to get it into the playoffs, if Holmdel beats Matawan, Roselle Park tops Manville, and New Providence knocks off Belvidere. Holmdel should win its game, giving the Bears one power point, but those other two teams – worth three each – are both underdogs. If one of them lose, it’s going to come down to the number of residuals Hoboken earns, at least for the clearest path.

Hillside, meanwhile, has already locked up its first berth in 12 years, but the Comets seed is very in flux, as residual points and the fortunes of several other clubs will decide if Hillside is seeded as high as No. 4 or as low as No. 8.

PINCUS’ PICK: Hillside 41-14

Simeon Pincus: SPincus@GannettNJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @SimeonPincus and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/SimeonPincusCN